On April 21, 2025, it was announced that Pope Francis had passed away. After being named the Vatican’s head of state and reigning for over 12 years, Francis etched his name in history as the first Jesuit and Latin American Pope. Francis became a beacon of hope for many Catholics by bringing a new stance to various issues. However, even with the passing of their leader, the Holy State has no time to rest and has called the Papal conclave and elect a new pope.
In this guide, our experts will introduce the betting markets, such as outright picks for the next pope as well as nationality and even Papal Names. In addition, we’ll list favourites for the nomination and explain the election process from top to bottom. So, without further ado, let’s get familiar with the next pope’s betting odds!
Next Pope Betting Markets Explained
The Papal Conclave is set to begin on May 7. During it, all of the top Catholic figures vote to elect a new Holy Father. A two-thirds supermajority vote is necessary. Even before the conclave begins, experts and media personalities are already discussing the potential winner, his nationality and even what papal name they might choose. These are the most popular next-pope betting markets
- Winner – an outright pick of a person who should get the 2/3rds supermajority votes during the conclave, required to be announced as the next pope.
- Nationality – an outright pick of the nationality of the next pope. Catholics and other Christians worldwide are always interested to know if their fellow countryman will sit at the Vatican. The last three popes were Polish, German and Argentinian, respectively.
- Papal name – bettors can also predict the next Holy Father’s name. The last three popes chose the following names: John Paul, Benedict and Francis, respectively.
Next Pope Betting Odds
Even though there is still time until the Papal conclave, reputation, built over the years, will dictate the majority’s choice. For Catholic priests and bishops, only the best-known and most recognised ones can even compete for an opportunity at the Holy Throne. In 2025, the next pope betting odds seem to have a few frontrunners that we’d like to introduce you to.
The odds and implied probabilities for these candidates on 7bet UK are as follows (accurate as of April 29, 2025):
| Name | Country | Odds | Percentage |
| Pietro Parolin | Italy | 2/1 | 33.3% |
| Luis Antonio Tagle | Philippines | 11/4 | 26.7% |
| Peter Turkson | Ghana | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| Matteo Zuppi | Italy | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Robert Sarah | Guinea | 6/1 | 14.3% |
Let’s get to know each of the frontrunners a bit better.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin
Born in 1955 in Schiavon, Italy, Pietro Parolin has served as Vatican’s Secretary of State along with Pope Francis since 2013. He was ordained in 1980 and has gathered extensive diplomatic experience, serving in Nigeria and Mexico before assuming his current role. The consensus on Cardinal Parolin is positive because he has moderate theological views and a great diplomatic background.
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle
Luis Antonio Tagle was born in 1957 in Manila, Philippines. Serving as archbishop of Manila from 2011 until 2020, Tagle was appointed cardinal in 2012. He would be the first Filipino pope, but thanks to relatability and humility, it seems that his chances are viewed well by experts around the globe.
Cardinal Peter Turkson
Born in 1948, the Ghanaian cardinal is one of Africa’s two most recognisable and bright church personalities. Peter Turkson has directed much of his attention towards social justice and environmental causes. Having been made cardinal in 2003, Turkson encouraged humanitarian development across Africa. He would be the first Ghanaian and African cardinal to be made pope.
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi
One more Italian, one more cardinal born in 1955. However, opposite Cardinal Parolin, Matteo Zuppi hails from Rome and is a renowned figure across Europe’s and Northern Italy’s Catholic communities. Appointed president of the Italian Episcopal Conference in 2022, Zuppi could also become the next Italian pope after 3 different nationalities assumed the position, starting with John Paul II.
Cardinal Robert Sarah
If the conclave picks a more conservative candidate, then the Guinean cardinal Robert Sarah might be an obvious choice. Born in 1945, he is the oldest of the candidates, but in no shortage of high spirits and energy. Serving as Prefect of the Congregation for Divine Worship and the Discipline of the Sacraments until 2021, he became known for traditional liturgy and moral teachings. Just as with Peter Turkson, Robert Sarah would become the first Guinean and African to be named pope.
Odds for the Nationality of the Next Pope
Along with the outright pick of the person, bettors can pick the Nationality or Continent of Origin for the next pope. Historically, the papacy has been dominated by Europeans, particularly Italians. However, with the past three popes coming from different countries, we might see a continuing trend or an Italian assuming the throne once again. Let’s see betting odds for the next pope by continent/nationality.
Odds are accurate on 7bet UK on April 29, 2025.
| Continent/Country | Odds | Percentage |
| Europe | 19/20 | 51.3% |
| Asia | 2/1 | 33.3% |
| Africa | 9/4 | 30.8% |
| North America | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| South America | 24/1 | 4.0% |
As it stands before the start of the 2025 Conclave, Europe has the highest chances, with Asia and Africa closely behind.
Papal Name Betting Odds
It’s always a hot debate when believers and media experts try to unwrap the speculation surrounding the name of the next pope. The choice reflects the personality as the name carries significant symbolic weight. The Holy Name reflects how the pope views the world and what he prioritises.
Let’s see what some early picks for the name-betting odds are.
*These are just preliminary expert picks that may be available on 7bet UK later.
| Papal Name | Odds | Percentage |
| Leo | 2/1 | 33.3% |
| Pius | 2/1 | 33.3% |
| John | 4/1 | 20.0% |
| Gregory | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| Francis | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| Benedict | 10/1 | 9.1% |
| Paul | 10/1 | 9.1% |
The name Leo has been chosen by 13 popes throughout history. The most recent, however, was back in 1878 – Leo XIII. Pius XII was the latest to bear the Pius name in 1958. John is a common papal name, with John Paul II being the last to bear it.
Where Can You Bet on the Next Pope?
If you are looking for odds on the next pope, his nationality or papal name, check out the 7bet next pope betting catalogue. Find the latest odds and get to know the favourites to assume the highest position in the Catholic Church.
Factors that Influence Pope Election Odds
Various surrounding local and global factors influence both the betting odds and conclave voting results. Historical precedents, theological leanings and even global sentiments can sway the odds to one or the other side.
Historical Preferences
Over the course of millennia, the papacy has been dominated by Europeans, with Italian being the most common nationality of the pope. However, the 20th and 21st centuries saw a turn of the tide with the elections of Pope John Paul II from Poland, Pope Benedict XVI from Germany, and Pope Francis from Argentina.
Age is another crucial factor. Even though younger popes might see a longer tenure, older candidates might have more experience and hold bigger weight in the global community.
Theological Stance
Just as in nations’ parliaments, there are more conservative, progressive and moderate factions. They usually advocate and lean towards candidates who hold similar values.
Progressive groups have gathered momentum with Pope Francis and the reforms that the Argentinian initiated. Yet, even with context, you can never know whether the Catholic Conclave wants to change the direction or keep similar values at the top.
Global Dynamics
Pope Francis made the College of Cardinals more diverse geographically. Thanks to increased representation from Africa, Asia, and Latin America, the Catholic Church has become more adept at overseeing Catholic affairs from all over the world. A shift in these demographics can also improve the chances of non-European candidates.
Conclave Dynamics
In the end, the secretive Papal Conclave will decide who is going to assume the position. When cardinals seek unity and a 2/3rds supermajority vote is required, a lot of unexpected things can happen.
In summary, the Catholic Church always wants a true leader with strong values and a stance that resonates with people around the globe.
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