The Gambler Who Beat Roulette: Genius or Scammer?

Ever since the roulette wheel was spun for the first time in history, many people have been obsessed with predicting the results of the game. Mathematicians and physicists, gamblers and scammers have all been trying to crack the code.

While some roulette players still rely on sheer luck and intuition when placing bets, others have come up with various strategies that claim to help you win if applied consistently throughout the game. There have also been attempts to create various devices. Some of them supposedly predict the number on which the ball will stop, others affect the ball externally. However, casinos caught up on those tricks pretty quickly, and all types of devices were announced illegal. Anyone caught using them inside the casino will face repercussions. 

So can you really beat roulette in a legal way? There is a quote to address this question, often assigned to Albert Einstein: “No one can win at roulette unless he steals money from the table while the croupier isn’t looking.” Another famous physicist, Stephen Hawking, wrote on the subject of roulette: “It is practically impossible to predict the number that will come up. Otherwise physicists would make a fortune at casinos.” This shows that science might have greatly advanced in the time period between Einstein and Hawking, yet no solutions have been found for defeating roulette.

Until Niko Tosa, the gambler who beat roulette, came along.

The Man at the Ritz Club Casino

No one knows when this story that reads nothing short of a James Bond adventure started but it became public on March 15, 2004. A trio consisting of two men and a woman entered the Ritz Club casino in London. The staff appeared to have recognized them, as the apparent leader of the group, a Croat with glasses, had frequented the place over the course of the past fortnight, each time taking a substantial amount in winnings with him. 

For an upscale West End establishment like Ritz that boasted of very spectacular patrons, from hedge fund tycoons and diplomats to actors Johnny Depp and Al Pacino to anyone in between, including royals, the Croatian man wasn’t someone to raise particular interest. Neither were his two companions: a Serbian businessman and a Hungarian woman. 

Yet, the security watched them closely, keeping in mind their unusual way of playing and incredible luck (or was it a meticulously developed method?). This time around, the trio led by the Croatian man behaved in the same pattern. After a careful scanning of the room, Niko Tosa selected one roulette table they all headed towards. 

Their playing style was as unorthodox as can be. They wouldn’t make bets before the croupier launched the ball. Even then, they would wait for six or seven seconds and make the bet at the last possible moment, barely in time before the croupier would announce that no more bets were accepted. When making a bet, they favoured consecutive rather than individual numbers. Same as every other night Tosa had visited Ritz, they walked away with a handsome amount of money. 

Arrest and Investigation 

The next night, when Tosa and both his companions returned to the casino, they were arrested on the charge of deception. All three of them were searched on the spot but neither their cell phones nor personal digital assistant-type devices were proved to be suspicious. Upon further investigation, their rooms contained nothing but the cash from the winnings from all the previous nights at the Ritz and a list of casinos, all marked with what seemed to be a secret code. 

The investigation didn’t stop there. The police deconstructed the roulette table that the trio sat at. They were searching for any hidden devices that might have tempered with the course of the game. And yet, there was nothing they could find. No amount of interrogation of the croupier working that table brought any results either. 

Nine months later, in December 2004, the police were compelled to let Tosa and both his companions walk as they could find no incriminating evidence against them. The case was dropped, and Scotland Yard allowed the gamblers to take their winnings – a total of £1.3 million. 

Niko Tosa Finally Speaks

For almost two decades after the eventful night at the Ritz, Niko Tosa, the gambler who beat roulette, disappeared from the radar. Apart from his nationality, not much was known about the man, not even his real name. 

But twenty years later Kit Chellel of Bloomberg Businessweek tracked him down to his home village south of the Croatian city of Dubrovnik. The same Dubrovnik that served as the filming location for King’s Landing in Game of Thrones. Tosa agreed to do an interview under the condition that his real name will stay concealed. 

The man that one of the Ritz managers referred to as “the most successful roulette player” he had seen throughout his career, appears to be in his 50s and, according to Chellel, comes from a prominent family residing in the village.

Tosa had no reservations talking about his adventures. He admitted to using fake names and disguises at various casinos. He also says that the geography of his exploits was very diverse, from Romania and Poland to Slovakia and England, and even as far as Kenya. And though sometimes he would get in trouble with casinos, until the memorable night at the Ritz he managed to not get caught. 

Yet, he scoffs at the notion that he used any sort of technology to win. In his own words, for a “peasant” like him that would be equal to science fiction. Tosa claims that his method relies purely on mental focus. 

Upon entering a casino, he finds a table that has a small defect, which makes the randomness of the ball landing less likely. Once the wheel and the ball are in motion, he mentally calculates where the ball will land right before the bets are closed. Presumably, Tosa spent hours upon hours practicing this skill on his home wheel.

Niko Tosa’s Method: Does It Really Work?

To begin analyzing Tosa’s method, it must be mentioned that all the roulettes he played were European style. For those unfamiliar with the roulette basics, every time the ball falls in the 0 pocket, the house automatically wins. In this regard, a European roulette wheel is much more favourable towards the gamblers than the American one which has both 0 and 00 pockets, which immediately reduces the chances for the players. 

The table condition is essential because a slight defect makes the ball more likely to land in a certain position. Tosa states he can predict that position with utmost accuracy. To increase his chances, he places the so-called “neighbours” bets. This means that rather than betting on individual numbers, he covers one and the adjacent two on each side, a total of five consecutive numbers. 

After the 2004 incident, a lot of casinos took note and further improved their wheels. They opted for scalloped pockets that increase the time the ball bounces chaotically. 

Still, Niko Tosa remains strong in his belief that he can keep up his game. Apparently, at the time of the interview with Bloomberg, he was preparing for another international casino adventure.