Eurovision 2025: Favourites

Eurovision Favourites

Place	Country	Performer	Song Name
1	Sweden	KAJ	Bara Bada Bastu
2	France	Louane	maman
3	Finland	Erika Vikman	„Ich komme“
4	Netherlands	Claude	“C’est La Vie”
5	Estonia	Tommy Cash	“Espresso macchiato”
6	Austria	JJ	“Wasted Love”
7	Czechia	Adonxs	“Kiss Kiss Goodbye”
8	Israel	Yuval Raphael	New Day Will Rise
9	Belgium	Red Sebastian	“Strobe Lights”

With the Eurovision Song Contest of 2025 rapidly approaching, excitement builds around some of the top expected performances. Our experts will provide you with a helpful list of 2025 Eurovision favourites across both semis and the Big Five, along with a short look at how early book favourites have done in recent contests.

 

Favourites in the Eurovision 2025 First Semi-Final

In this first Semi-Final, a few notable performances stand out in early bookmaker odds and are also in the TOP 10 for outright picks for the entire contest. They are

• Quirky and Fun Sweden: KAJ – “Bara Bada Bastu”
• Smooth and Elegant Netherlands: Claude – “C’est La Vie”
• Light and Memorable Estonia: Tommy Cash – “Espresso Macchiato”
• Exciting and Flashy Belgium: Red Sebastian – “Strobe Lights”

These four performances are all in the TOP 9 with early polls. However, San Marino, Ukraine, Cyprus and Albania can deliver excellent results. With a few more nations as capable underdogs, don’t count anyone out in the First Semi-Final just yet.

 

Favourites in the Eurovision 2025 Second Semi-Final

There are 16 participants in the second Semi-Final, making it even more competitive than the first one. With less clear-cut favourites, this Semi-Final seems even more evenly matched. Let’s see who the odds see as leaders of this pack.

• Sensual and Melancholic Austria: JJ – “Wasted Love”
• Provocative and Unapologetic Finland: Erika Vikman – “Ich Komme”
• Powerful and Memorable: Yuval Raphael – “New Day Will Rise”
• Emotional and Deep: Adonxs – “Kiss Kiss Goodbye”

Even though these four performances have great outright odds, Greece, Australia, Malta, and Ireland can also bring the thunder and get their ticket to the Grand Final. Don’t miss the rehearsals and the Second Semi-Final live to get an authentic feel for who might advance further.

 

Favourites from the ‘Big Five’ in the 2025 Eurovision

As early odds would indicate, there are two standout performances from the ‘Big Five’.

The first one is France’s Louane with “Maman”. France holds the highest odds from the ‘Big Five’ and is found in most TOP 3s around the world. The United Kingdom is the second one with Remember Monday and their engaging display “What the Hell Just Happened?” in second place from this list.

However, the UK’s performance is a general underdog, and only in the TOP 15 for outright picks, according to most bookmakers. This is much lower than France, but still the second best from this group.

 

How Early Favourites Fared in Past Eurovision Song Contests?

Let’s look at the past three Eurovisions (2022, 2023 and 2024) to see whether bookmaker odds are always right.

In 2022, Ukraine’s Kalush Orchestra was an early favourite and won the contest. They were given a 60-63 % chance at victory and delivered.

In 2023, Sweden’s Loreen and Finland’s Käärijä were at the top. Yet, Loreen was a larger favourite with a 48-53 % chance at victory and once again, delivered on the promise.

However, 2024 brought an entirely different story. In early polls, Croatia’s Baby Lasagna and Israel’s Eden Golan were hailed as favourites with 52 % and 16 % chances at victory, respectively. However, what ended up happening was that the 3rd place favourite, Nemo from Switzerland, jumped past both of them en route to victory. This proved that even bookmaker lists can be wrong.

So, always make your betting picks responsibly and don’t forget to watch the ESC 2025 live to get a feel for every performance. 

 

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