The trends are clear: you want a lightly raced three-year-old with no more than five career starts, a Dante Stakes or Chester Vase win behind him, a trainer who knows the unique demands of Epsom’s undulations and cambers, and the pedigree to get a mile and a half. For fans following the biggest horse racing fixtures of the season, these are the five horses from this year’s Derby field whose profiles tick the most boxes.
The Five Horses
1. Benvenuto Cellini – The Chester Vase Winner
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Odds: 3/1 (Betfred ante-post)
Best piece of form: Won the Group 3 Chester Vase by four and a quarter lengths in a dominant display on his seasonal reappearance, ridden by Ryan Moore; O’Brien used the same race last year as the stepping stone for Derby winner Lambourn, and Benvenuto Cellini produced a performance of similar authority.
Trend fit: A son of Frankel, lightly raced and with a pedigree built for a mile and a half; O’Brien chasing a record-extending 12th Derby win and a fourth straight success; the Chester Vase has a strong record of pointing to the Derby, with Lambourn being only the most recent winner to follow that path to Epsom glory.
Betting appeal: At 3/1 the market has him as the clear standard-setter on form; a win bet is the straightforward play if Ryan Moore confirms the ride, and O’Brien’s record of four consecutive Derby wins makes it very hard to oppose his number one at any price.
2. Item – The Dante Winner
Trainer: Andrew Balding
Odds: 4/1 (Betfred ante-post)
Best piece of form: Won the Group 2 Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes at York on 14 May 2026 by two and three-quarter lengths from Aidan O’Brien’s Action, with O’Brien’s Christmas Day a further length and three-quarters back in third; ridden by Colin Keane for the Juddmonte operation, the win was his third from three starts and came on his first run in a Group race.
Trend fit: Unbeaten in three starts, the son of Frankel is exactly the lightly raced profile that the historical trends reward; 21 of the last 23 Derby winners had no more than five career starts; Andrew Balding’s father Ian won the Derby with Mill Reef in 1971 and Andrew has been chasing the race for his entire training career, describing it as his dream.
Betting appeal: At 4/1 Item represents the best value in the market; he beat two O’Brien horses at York in the most important Derby trial of the season, he is unbeaten, and he is trained by a handler who is desperate to win the race; an each-way bet at 4/1 is the most compelling option in the field.
3. Constitution River – The Dee Stakes Winner
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Odds: 7/2 (Betfred ante-post)
Best piece of form: Won the Listed Dee Stakes at Chester’s May Festival in impressive fashion; a son of Wootton Bassett, he caused a surge of support in the Derby market that briefly made him favourite before O’Brien indicated his preference may be the Prix du Jockey Club at Chantilly; Benvenuto Cellini was subsequently restored as Derby favourite.
Trend fit: If he runs at Epsom rather than Chantilly, Constitution River adds a second strong trial winner to the O’Brien team; a Group 2 winner as a two-year-old in the Irish EBF Futurity Stakes, he has the profile and pedigree to handle a mile and a half; the uncertainty over his Epsom participation is the key risk factor.
Betting appeal: At 7/2 he is an attractive each-way option if confirmed for Epsom; the key caveat is that O’Brien has suggested the Prix du Jockey Club may be his target instead, so check the declarations at 10am on Wednesday 3 June before placing any bet; if he does run at Epsom, he has the class and form to be a serious contender.
4. Maltese Cross – The Haggas Contender
Trainer: William Haggas
Odds: 8/1 (Betfred ante-post)
Best piece of form: William Haggas’s representative in the Derby market at 8/1; Haggas has a strong record with Classic-generation colts and his runners at this level tend to arrive well-prepared; update this section with his specific prep race form once declarations are confirmed.
Trend fit: Haggas has produced Derby contenders before and his yards typically prepare horses meticulously for the undulations and specific demands of Epsom; at 8/1 he sits in a price range that has historically been productive for the race, with the market occasionally underestimating the Newmarket trainers relative to Ballydoyle.
Betting appeal: A speculative each-way punt at 8/1 may represent value depending on his prep race form and fitness coming into Epsom; check the latest market moves in the week of the race before placing, as Haggas horses often attract strong support close to the off.
5. Pierre Bonnard – The Redemption Story
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Odds: 10/1 (Betfred ante-post)
Best piece of form: Won the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud at Saint-Cloud in October 2025 by two lengths under Christophe Soumillon, who described him as a horse with a long acceleration who was still green and had significant improvement in him; the son of Camelot was described by O’Brien as a Derby horse immediately after that victory.
Trend fit: Pierre Bonnard flopped on his 2026 seasonal return in the Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown in April, which pushed his price out from 4/1 to 10/1; O’Brien was quick to say the horse was entitled to improve sharply for the run; Camelot colts have a strong record at Epsom, with the sire himself winning the Derby in 2012; he has the pedigree and, when right, the class to be competitive at 10/1.
Betting appeal: At 10/1 he is the most speculative of the five selections; a small each-way bet makes more sense than a win bet given the uncertainty around his Ballysax flop; if he arrives at Epsom with a positive work report and market support in the week of the race, he could be significantly shorter than 10/1 by the time the gates open.
The Verdict
If the trends point anywhere, it is towards Item as the most complete profile in the field; an unbeaten Dante Stakes winner, trained by a handler desperate to win the Derby, owned by Juddmonte and bred by Frankel, three from three with his best form coming at the highest level.
And Benvenuto Cellini as the each-way value pick at 3/1; the Chester Vase in dominant fashion is the exact preparation O’Brien used with last year’s winner Lambourn, and you do not bet against Aidan O’Brien at Epsom.
For those exploring the latest horse racing betting markets ahead of the Derby, both runners stand out as compelling options based on current form and historical trends.
But in the Epsom Derby, there are no certainties – only good reasons to watch.
Betting is only available to participants aged 18 years and over. Please bet responsibly. GambleAware.org