Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Odds: 2026 WTA US Open Final Preview

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The women’s side of the 2026 US Open draw has reached its climax. It’s only fitting that on Saturday, 12 September, at 21:00 BST, the Arthur Ashe Stadium will host the tournament’s and World’s No.1 and No. 2 ranked players on the grandest of stages. It’s a rematch of this year’s Australian Open Final, with 2-time defending champ Aryna Sabalenka (1) facing Elena Rybakina (2). 

Remarkably, the 2026 edition was the first time since 1975 that the top 4 women’s seeds all reached the US Open semi-finals. In this preview, we’ll direct our attention to and analyse the Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina betting odds in detail to help you navigate US Open betting better. In addition, this guide will introduce how both players reached the final of 2026’s last Grand Slam. There’s plenty of ground to cover, so let’s get to it.

Form Guide & H2H | Disclaimer Info

The story between these two athletes is intense. First, while Sabalenka is the World No.1 heading into the final, she’s guaranteed to lose that ranking to Rybakina, regardless of Saturday’s result. The end to a 99-week reign at the top will definitely fuel the defending champ’s fire. You can add that a 3rd consecutive title in NYC would make her only the 3rd woman ever (Chris Evert, Serena Williams) to achieve such a feat. It’s obvious that she’ll be as motivated as ever. 

Rybakina, on the other hand, has had her best year in 2026, winning the Australian Open, reaching the US Open Finals and securing enough points to become the new World No. 1 with a Quarter-Final victory. Adding a US Open victory, a 3rd slam to her name would be like a cherry on top of an amazing year.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina | H2H

As is deserved for the Final, and for the World’s No. 1 and No. 2 ranked players, their H2H is quite close.

Sabalenka held an 8-6 advantage over her peer, but lost the 2026 Australian Open Final to Rybakina in 3 sets. The World’s current No.1 had her revenge, winning two of their next meetings – one in the Indian Wells Semi-Final (after a spectacular 3rd set tie-break), and one in Miami’s Semi-Finals later that year, dismantling Rybakina in straight sets under the Florida sun.

The current H2H result before the 2026 US Open Final is 10-7, in favour of Aryna Sabalenka. 

Still, recent meetings have gone in different directions depending on the day, and this will be their first meeting on a hard court since that Australian Open Final. All this means fans can expect top-quality tennis, with both athletes having chances. The 2026 US Open Women’s Finals odds reflect that. 

Aryna Sabalenka | Form

The 28-year-old arrives as the top seed and the 2-time defending champ. It’s actually her 4th straight US Open final. While the ‘Tigress’ has had a shaky middle of 2026 since winning Indian Wells and Miami, it seems she has got her groove back, extending her US Open winning streak to 19 straight matches. Yes, she hasn’t lost one since 2023, and an aura of invincibility can sometimes do wonders for an athlete. 

The toughest test for Sabalenka came in the Quarter-Finals, where she faced Wimbledon’s champ Linda Noskova. The 28-year-old overcame being down a break in the 3rd set, reached the tie-break and handled business there. In the semis, she was dominant, dismantling Jessica Pegula (3) in straight sets. She struck 29 winners, including 7 aces. Interestingly enough, it was her third straight US Open semi-final win over Pegula specifically. 

While the guaranteed loss of the No. 1 ranking is definitely hurtful to her, Sabalenka has shown excellent tennis at Flushing Meadows, making her a huge threat to Rybakina.

Elena Rybakina | Form

The Kazakhstani tennis star heads into her first-ever US Open Final. Previously, the 1.84 m tall ace-virtuoso has never reached past the 4th round, making this her deepest and sweetest run in New York. That’s in tune with how she’s played throughout all of 2026. Rybakina won the Australian Open in January. In Melbourne, she dispatched the same opponent she’s set to face on Saturday – Aryna Sabalenka. 

Her path to the final showed genuine composure. A shaky start to her quarter-final match against Zheng Qinwen required a 3rd set comeback to seal the World No.1 ranking and reach the semis. In the next stage, it was a similar story. Rybakina lost the first set, but came back to defeat 2023 champion Coco Gauff. 

It’s apparent that her route to the Finals wasn’t as smooth, but both women were seriously tested along the way regardless. The question is whether she has enough pep in her step left after lengthy battles against Qinwen and Gauff. If so, fireworks are to be expected.

Betting Disclaimer

Please remember that all odds are correct at the time of writing. They are subject to change. Always check the latest prices at the tennis betting hub at 7bet and play responsibly.

Remember that odds only reflect implied probabilities, set out by the bookmaker, and can’t guarantee outcomes. Shorter odds point to the favourite, while longer prices dictate who’s the underdog.

Moneyline Odds

The ‘Moneyline’ or ‘Match Winner’ odds are the most straightforward binary pick of the lot. Bettors choose either Aryna Sabalenka or Elena Rybakina to win the 2026 US Open WTA Finals. Here’s what 7bet anticipates:

At 7bet, Sabalenka enters the match as the moderate favourite, priced around a 60% implied probability against Rybakina’s roughly 47%. Still, that’s a tight market, which is to be expected because Rybakina has had a very strong year and is set to overtake Sabalenka in the WTA rankings, regardless of how things play out on Saturday.

Still, Aryna Sabalenka has the lead in their H2H (10-7), so it’s genuinely a close contest on paper and in the eyes of many experts. Make sure to do your research before placing real money bets.

Correct Score Betting Odds

The ‘Correct Score’ market asks punters to correctly identify the winner and the exact set outcome of the match. As a Grand Slam Women’s Final, Sabalenka vs Rybakina is a best-of-three affair, meaning 4 possible results (2:0 or 2:1 in favour of either). Since the market requires identifying two elements, the odds tend to be longer than with Moneyline picks. Here’s how the numbers look:

Sabalenka’s win in straight sets carries the highest implied probability, reflecting her status as a moderate favourite and taking into account the fact that Rybakina sometimes starts slower. For the Kazakhstani player, a 2:0 win is also considered the more likely route to victory.

Over/Under Total Games

These tennis markets are popular because they offer a wide range of thresholds to bet on. With these bets, you wager whether the total number of games in the match is going to be more than (‘Over’) or less than (‘Under’) a designated threshold. A higher number of games usually points to a tighter contest, and vice versa. Here’s how the numbers look at the time of writing:

With two of the game’s biggest hitters facing off, and Sabalenka in career-best US Open form, service holds could dominate while keeping totals moderate. Still, Rybakina has shown that she can cling on to matches with nails and teeth, dragging out multiple 3-set wins on the biggest stages. The 22.5 line is priced 3/4 on the Over and 9/10 on the Under, meaning that’s where the bookmaker expects the line to fall. This reflects the closeness of the Moneyline odds and shows the bookmaker is uncertain whether the final is decided quickly or stretches into a longer battle.

Game Handicap

To level the playing field (at least virtually), markets award a virtual advantage to the implied underdog and a virtual disadvantage to the predicted favourite. The favourite needs to clear the disadvantage, while the underdog must stay within the set threshold margin. 

Remember that this only concerns game handicaps, and isn’t related to the match outcome. A player could win the game handicap and lose the match, or vice versa. Here’s how Sabalenka vs Rybakina US Open odds for game handicaps look at the time of writing:

For example, if you choose ‘Sabalenka -2.5’ @1/1 odds, she must win by 3 or more games. Alternatively, ‘Rybakina +2.5’ @4/6: the Kazakhstani must lose by 2 games or fewer, or win outright. 

Set Handicap

This market works similarly to the game handicap, but applies the virtual advantage to full sets rather than games. This is a simpler, broader way for bettors to back a comfortable winner or back the underdog to at least take a set. Here is the picture, painted by the numbers:

The numbers point to the fact that Rybakina is the moderate underdog. Still, 5/2 on Rybakina −1.5 sets reflects just how unlikely a straight-sets Rybakina win is seen to be, given how competitive their recent meetings have been.

First Set Winner Odds

Punters can choose to back Aryna Sabalenka or Elena Rybakina to take the opening set. This bet focuses only on the 1st set, not the final outcome of the match. Still, the first set is very important as it sets the tone for the match. Here is how the numbers for this market look:

According to the odds right now, Sabalenka is a stronger favourite to take the opener – 5/7 vs 21/20, indicating a ~58% probability vs ~49% for Rybakina. This is consistent with the Moneyline odds and the fact that Rybakina has been slow out of the gates in her previous outings. With that being said, an early break either way could prove decisive, so make sure to bet responsibly.

You can also bet on the 2nd set winner at 7bet, if you’re interested.

Short Summary of Sabalenka vs Rybakina US Open Final

The 2026 US Open Women’s Final has great stakes on both sides of the table. Sabalenka is chasing a historic three-peat and seeking to avenge her loss to Rybakina at the Australian Open, as well as retribution for losing her No. 1 ranking position.

For Rybakina, it’s a way to stake her claim as the most successful women’s player of 2026, and finish off the year in style. With a full range of betting markets available, you can use this overview to find picks you feel confident in. Expect high-quality tennis on Saturday, 12 September at 21:00 BST and make sure to watch the action live in the UK on Sky Sports. 

We’d also like to remind you that Live, in-play odds will be available and updated continuously throughout the match on the 7bet IN-PLAY page.

Betting is only available to participants above 18 years. Please bet responsibly. BeGambleAware.org