Slots have been a central component of online casinos for decades. During this time, certain buzzwords have been misapplied and ingrained in player culture.
Notions of hot and cold slots, for example, have persisted. The belief behind hot slots is that certain games are going through a phase where they produce more frequent wins.
In contrast, cold slots are seen as being games that go through a dry streak or pay out fewer wins. However, these labels are based on past observations and don’t necessarily guide future outcomes.
Instead, a random number generator (RNG) determines game outcomes. This guide seeks to tackle fallacies associated with hot and cold slots.
What Are Hot Slots?
Hot slots is an informal term used to describe a game that has produced a regular number of large payouts. Some players have therefore been encouraged to try out hot slots as they deem them to be lucky, but “hot” shouldn’t be described as a technical classification of a slot.
Rather, it is more accurate to suggest that fortunes can quickly fluctuate within a game. A title that may have a recent history of yielding more wins may not necessarily suggest wins will be more likely moving forward. Below is an example of a slot deemed as being “hot”:
Gates of Olympus may be described informally as “hot” after a period in which users observe several notable wins. This does not change the game’s underlying RTP, volatility or RNG behaviour.
Why a Slot May Appear Hot
A slot can seem appealing or “hot”, because it may fulfil the following objectives:
- Short-term winning streaks – In the immediate period, players may notice a slot is offering up short-term winning streaks or a series of wins close together. This might provide confirmation bias that a slot might continue to pay out, when in fact, a hot spell or spurt could be about to end.
- Long-term mathematical expectations – Timing may feel like a controllable advantage to players; however, short-term results don’t determine how a game is likely to perform in the long term. Each result, thanks to RNGs, acts independently of each other.
- Creating perceptions – A large payout may perpetuate a belief among players that a game is performing particularly well. Players might be convinced a hot spell could continue with bigger payouts around the corner. This can help to create hype about a game due to its perceived lucrative nature.
What Are Cold Slots?
Unlike hot slots, cold slots refer to games that haven’t paid out in a while. It is therefore best to frame cold slots in the following ways, and we’ve illustrated a cold slot example below:
- Term is observational – Players may be hard-wired to look for patterns, but cold slots are an observational term. It’s not a technical feature of a game or an indicator of how a game might behave in the future.
- Nothing guaranteed – If a player has embarked on a losing spell, there is no guarantee that a win is due. Instead, future outcomes remain independent of previous spins.
A player might informally describe The Dog House Megaways as “cold” after observing a sequence with few or no notable wins. That description refers only to the observed sequence and does not mean the game has entered a different mathematical state.
Why a Slot May Appear Cold?
A slot may seem cold to players, and this is attributed to the following factors:
- Consistent losing streak – A game that sees a player make several losing spells in succession may reinforce a belief among them that they won’t be able to turn things around in the short term.
- Long gaps between larger wins – This is classified by volatility, and games with higher volatility will usually supply bigger wins on a more infrequent basis.
- Mathematical properties – Games are dictated by house edge and RNGs, so a slot that may seem cold now may not necessarily be the case in the future.
Hot and Cold Slots vs Random Outcomes
At the core of every slot is an RNG. This software algorithm is built into every game, and it generates millions of number sequences every second. They are highly regulated and subject to rigorous testing to ensure fairness.
With RNGs, they ensure that every spin is completely independent of the previous one. Previous wins or losses do not make a particular result more likely on the next spin. RNGs don’t have a fixed memory of past results; they don’t know whether it just paid out or not. A sequence can appear from the outset of being unusually positive or negative while still being random.
Players are hard-wired to look for patterns; however, there is a distinct difference between observing a pattern and being able to predict one. Patterns may pop up during short gaming sessions; however, predictions can be much harder as the RNGs leave outcomes to chance.
Does a Hot Slot Keep Paying?
Not necessarily. A slot that has been considered hot or has provided a recent winning streak won’t continue indefinitely.
Having RNGs, as mentioned, ensures fairness within a game and keeps outcomes random, which can’t be triggered by players.
Is a Cold Slot Due to Pay?
No, there is a common fallacy perpetuated by players. Every spin on a slot machine is an independent event unaffected by what has preceded it.
Previous outcomes don’t create an obligation for the next spin to produce a win. A slot that may have produced a series of losses in the past could continue for a while before things turn around and start to pay out. Players must be mindful of this when they engage with and bet on a game.
RTP and Volatility vs Hot and Cold Slots
Past performances don’t predict future results. Instead, the potential payout of slots is determined by two characteristics — RTP and volatility.
Understanding these standalone concepts will give players a broader idea of what to expect when betting on a game.
Return to Player (RTP)
The RTP figure is a theoretical long-term percentage of what players can expect to receive on bets placed. A theoretical RTP of 96% means that, across a very large number of game rounds, the game’s mathematical model is designed to return approximately 96% of stakes as winnings overall. It does not mean an individual player will receive £96 back from every £100 wagered.
However, players should be aware of the following:
- The RTP doesn’t describe how much players should expect to receive during a shorter gaming spell or single playing session.
- A game could have a 96% RTP, but players could still go hundreds of spins without generating a win.
- It doesn’t inform users about whether a slot is hot or cold.
Slot Volatility
Volatility, which can often be referred to as variance, is a barometer measuring the risk level of a slot.
It is split into three types — high, medium, and low — and the following principles apply.
- Higher-volatility games may produce larger payouts, but they are more rare.
- Medium-volatility games generally sit between low- and high-volatility designs in terms of payout frequency and size.
- Lower-volatility slots are generally designed around relatively more frequent, smaller payouts compared with higher-volatility games.
- Volatility is a characteristic; hot and cold slots are merely descriptions of recent results. They aren’t an accurate indicator of how future spins might pan out.
Can You Identify Hot and Cold Slots?
Some players may interpret recent results as a sign that a slot is ‘hot’ or ‘cold’. However, these perceptions are based on past outcomes and do not indicate how the game will perform on future spins. The following points explain why these patterns can appear convincing.
- Users may tend to look at recent outcomes and assume a game is hot or cold. In feeding off the idea of hot and cold slots, players fail to assess the wider picture of a game’s mechanics and ability to pay out.
- Observations carried out by players aren’t a useful guide in terms of predicting subsequent spins. In some cases, a supposed big jackpot hit on a hot slot may have happened regardless of whether players tracked previous payouts.
- Casino sites will routinely display recent wins or popular games, but this doesn’t establish or guarantee that a game is indeed hot or more likely to pay.
- There are no set patterns or cycles for identifying hot and cold slots; they are determined by RNGs which leaves gaming outcomes to chance.
Do Recent Wins Matter?
In short, recent wins don’t matter. Historical outcomes should not be presented as an affirmative betting signal of what will happen next. A game that is highly volatile may be behaving as expected.
Some players can get overconfident and fall into the confirmation bias trap. They will remember when a slot worked well for them and conveniently forget the times it didn’t. Even if they think they found a hot slot machine that pays out regularly, in reality, the recent wins they clocked up may have been by chance.
Do Recent Losses Matter?
A run of losses doesn’t necessarily increase the possibility of a win happening. Again, there is a mistaken belief that past outcomes can shape future results, and players start to rationalise losses.
In reality, players need to take into account RNGs, variance, and RTP as making predictions about gaming patterns generally can be a futile task.
Why Players Talk About Hot and Cold Slots
The idea of hot and cold slots seems quite a romantic idea. Gambling can tap into powerful emotions, and we have explored the behavioural aspects below:
- Humans are accustomed to looking for patterns in random sequences. Often, events can be isolated, and there may be no correlation between a regular amount of wins on one slot and fewer on another.
- Winning or losing streaks therefore can often stand out more than ordinary sequences where gaming sessions had little or next to no significance. Describing games as hot and cold can serve to amplify gaming experiences.
- Recent outcomes can influence perceptions of how a game is performing, but players won’t have the data to back it up.
- Casino terminology has often tended to categorise games as “hot” or “cold” as convenient descriptions. Instead, some slots over time may have tended to produce more successful outcomes than others.
- Rather than using gambling jargon, terms such as hot and cold simplify things for players who are looking for games to play rather than grapple with more complicated gaming mechanics.
FAQs
What does a hot slot mean?
A hot slot is described as one that has tended to produce frequent or notable wins. However, this is often a term drummed up by casinos that can influence player perceptions.
What does a cold slot mean?
A cold slot is perceived as being one where a game produces a lean spell or an extended losing sequence. Again, this is a fallacy perpetuated by players, as gaming mechanics are determined by RNGs.
Are hot slots more likely to pay?
No, not necessarily. Recent results only tell you about past outcomes, and they won’t dictate what will happen in the future.
Do cold slots eventually have to pay?
No, a series of losses doesn’t mean a win is due on the next spin.
Can you predict when a slot will become hot?
Although players like to look for patterns or trends, there is no definitive method that can predict future RNG-based outcomes from previous spins. Each spin has to be assessed independently.
Does slot volatility affect whether a game looks hot or cold?
Volatility can affect the pattern and sizes of payouts, but the two terms aren’t interlinked. Volatility won’t create predictable hot or cold periods.
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